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Donald Trump Is The 45th US President - Wealth Managers' Reactions

Tom Burroughes

10 November 2016

Unsurprisingly, the election of Donald J Trump, who becomes the 45th President of the United States after yesterday’s election win, has prompted a flood of commentary from the wealth management industry around the world. Here is a selection of comments.

Steven Bell, chief economist at BMO Global Asset Management, EMEA
There will be profound implications for social issues in the US, for foreign policy and for economic policy both monetary and fiscal. We expect tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending. With unemployment so low this means higher inflation and only limited gains to jobs a growth.

A Trump administration will challenge Fed and impose an audit. The December rate hike – priced as a near certainty yesterday is now even. We still think the Fed will hike and the chances of higher rates further out have increased substantially. US bond yields and breakeven inflation are headed higher. Equities face a challenger but should outperform bonds. Emerging market equities look vulnerable but would bounce back if Trump pulls back from declaring a trade war.

Carol Schleif, CFA, DCIO, Abbot Downing
The first 100 days truly will be critical, particularly as to cabinet appointments and tone of rhetoric. Wall Street will look for signs of conciliation, and pro or negative attention to business interests on such issues as taxation and regulation.

Single party sweeps are likely to be met with concern by markets, no matter which party is at the helm. This reflects how extreme the positions are perceived to be on both ends.

If the dollar declines like British pound did, will the Fed be off the hook for a December hike?  Will it be off anyway just for general policy until the uncertainty plays itself out? The initial decline is likely to last more than a day or so before stabilizing at a lower level. It will likely create opportunities - but not in as rapid a fashion as Brexit did. Businesses, too, hate policy murkiness.  So the sooner the direct becomes clear, the firmer their response can be. But on the whole, business should breathe a bit easier on the policy/regulatory front.

David Donabedian, chief investment officer of Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management
A number of factors may create a volatile short-term environment:

A visceral reaction to a surprise result by a candidate viewed as unpredictable; concerns over President-elect Trump's lack of experience; traders who were "long" a Clinton victory may further unwind positions.

The typical safe haven trade of a stronger US dollar and a rally in Treasuries is not playing to form. The trade-weighted dollar index is roughly unchanged vs. yesterday . The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced significant volatility, dropping overnight but then jumping about ¼ per cent  from those lows, reaching the highest levels since March.

Once the dust settles, the following are potential positives for equities: Corporate tax reform, including repatriation of overseas cash at a low rate, is likely; a “pro-growth” stimulus package - both tax cuts and spending increases - will be on the agenda; the energy, financial, defense and pharmaceutical/biotech sectors are likely beneficiaries, a more friendly regulatory and judicial environment on business issues.

The biggest market-related policy risk from a Trump administration is in the area of trade. The President has enormous latitude to impose punitive sanctions on other countries such as tariffs and import restrictions.  If President-elect Trump acts in concert with his campaign rhetoric, an aggressive trade confrontation with other countries could be disruptive to the US economy. Foreign entities hold over 40 per cent of US Treasury debt and foreign earnings account for more than 40 per cent of total S&P 500 profits.

 The Treasury market’s sharp sell-off this morning presents another risk that we will be closely monitoring. It is possible that this reaction is driven by concern that the aforementioned fiscal stimulus package could significantly raise the federal deficit.  However, the GOP congressional leadership is quite sensitive to the deficit issue, so President-elect Trump’s plan – which by one estimate would add $5 trillion to cumulative deficits over ten years – is probably a non-starter.

There is no question that this non-consensus outcome injects more uncertainty into the investment landscape. But, on most issues, the constitutional process naturally moderates the tone and policy prescriptions espoused by candidates’ campaign rhetoric. A key part of Mr. Trump’s campaign message related to “making deals” and compromising to get things done. Also, given its myriad factions, the GOP Congress will not act as a rubber stamp for President-elect Trump on most issues, either.

Lyxor, the asset management firm
Trump’s campaign promises are unlikely to be fully implemented by the Congress despite unified government. In particular the Congress might be reluctant to ratify measures that would sharply widen the budget deficit. Some expansionary fiscal policies such as infrastructure spending are nonetheless likely to be adopted.

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will last until 2018. On top of increased protectionism, public spending could fuel inflation in the medium term. We maintain US inflation breakevens at Overweight. Increased protectionism leads us to stay underweight emerging market equities and to prefer domestic over global stocks with regards to US equities.

The dollar could be supported by the repatriation of offshore profits by American corporates, under plans by Donald Trump for a tax cut on such proceeds.


Bill Papadakis, Investment Strategist at Lombard Odier
We see the election of Donald Trump as a break with the status quo and we consider this outcome as one of the political events that financial markets will have to adjust to the new political and economic environment.

The economic agenda of the Trump campaign was primarily focused on scaling back or restructuring trade relationships , a strong opposition to immigration, deregulation , as well as a plan for substantial tax cuts - especially in higher income brackets.

Of particular relevance to financial markets is also the critical stance that Donald Trump has held against current US Federal Reserve policies, and specifically against Janet Yellen. This has generated expectations that Yellen may be replaced as the Fed Chair when her term expires in 2018 with a more hawkishly inclined candidate, in line with the prevailing Republican economic thinking. However, whether the President-elect chooses to take this direction is an open question, as restrictive monetary policy would run counter to his stated goal of doubling US growth.

Virginie O'Shea, research director, Institutional Securities & Investments, Aite Group
Regulation: Donald Trump has advocated in favor of loosened regulations. Although he pursues the elimination of all existing regulation, it is obvious that it is an extremely complex task, considering the need for the views of both the House of Representatives and the Senate to align.

He might, however, loosen certain regulations in the longer term, such as capital requirements for financial institutions, or maybe eliminate a few specific lines from Dodd-Frank. Although Dodd-Frank is almost implemented, a few areas are still in progress. In the short term, expect the brakes to be put on requirements that are yet to come into force.

Bullion Management Group, Barisheff, president and CEO
A Trump US presidential victory signals $1,500 an ounce for gold and $24 for silver in the intermediate term.

"Trump voters have now injected an unprecedented level of uncertainty into global financial markets.  Investors prefer clarity, and until President-elect Trump fully clarifies his economic, trade and foreign policy positions, investors will be in a high-alert state of uncertainty. Roiling markets will compel investors to purchase safe-haven assets, especially precious metals.

The mainstream financial media, market analysts and fiscal academics continue to overlook the fundamental reasons to own bullion. In one word, this oversight boils down to 'uncertainty.' Americans anxious about their future or their trust in large government and financial institutions chose to vote for President-elect Trump.

The gold price has a strong historic correlation to the growth of the US national debt of about 90 per cent. This correlation diverged in 2011, and in order to reflect the current $20 trillion in total debt, the gold price should be at least $2,000 per ounce.